经济学人双语版-几率有多大? What are the odds?

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FlyTitle: Predicting 2020

The wisdom of markets and models suggests a tumultuous year ahead

市场智慧和模型显示这一年将充满动荡

经济学人双语版-几率有多大? What are the odds?

“PREDICTION IS DIFFICULT,” they say, “especially about the future.” Statistical models can yield tolerably accurate projections for events that occur often, but not for one-offs, for which there are no historical data. One way to estimate the odds of such events is the “wisdom of crowds”. Just as stockmarkets aggregate beliefs about risk and firms’ future profits, betting markets reveal a consensus view about future political and news events.

人们常说:“预测很难,尤其是预测未来。”统计模型可以对经常发生的事件做出准确度尚可的预测,但对没有历史数据的一次性事件就很难了。预测此类事件发生几率的一种方式是“群众智慧”。正如股票市场汇集了对风险和企业未来利润的看法,博彩市场揭示了人们对未来政治和新闻事件的共识。

Our graphic shows forecasts for the year ahead based on markets and models, from Donald Trump’s chances of re-election (46%) to whether Sweden will win the Eurovision Song Contest (9%). Nothing about the future is certain, but some outcomes are more likely than others. ■

我们的图表显示了基于市场和模型对这一年做出的预测,从特朗普连任的机会(46%)到瑞典是否会赢得欧洲歌唱大赛(9%)。未来的一切都不确定,但有些变成现实的几率要更大。

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